Tuesday, 7 February 2006 - 10:15 AM
This presentation is part of: Crops--Peanuts and Soybeans
Contribution of Temperature, Precipitation, and Solar Radiation from Dynamically Downscaled Global Climate Model Output to Predicting Peanut Yields and Phenology in the SE USA.
John G. Bellow1, Dong-Wook Shin
1, Justin Schoof
1, James Jones
2, and James J. O'Brien
1. (1) Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Drive, R.M. Johnson Building, Tallahassee, FL 32310, (2) University of Florida, PO Box 110570, Gainesville, FL 32611-0570
The impact of the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the seasonal climate in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia has been well documented for temperature and precipitation. These ENSO modulated shifts in precipitation and temperature regimes can influence the yields of a variety of field crops grown in the region. The use of ENSO climatology to drive a process based crop model such has those found in the DSSAT 4.0 suite provides the state-of-the-art means to forecast crop yields. However, the ENSO signal in the southeast is weak during the critical months of June, July, and August and yield forecasts using ENSO climatology contain more variability than is desirable. The improvements in numerical climate models at both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) scales suggest an opportunity to enhance regional scale yield forecasts. The CROPGRO CSM model was parameterized for Georgia Green peanut and simulation studies were made for the period 1994 through 2003 at nine sites across AL, FL, and GA. For each site and year, peanut growth and development were simulated using; observed weather conditions, the conditions forecast by the FSU RCM, a synthetic forecast comprised of both observed conditions and FSU RCM output, and the expected conditions associated with El Niņo, La Niņa, or Neutral ENSO phases. The results indicate both the strengths and weaknesses associated with the output from the FSU regional climate model when used to forecast crop yields. The potential for using RCM forecast data to improve crop yield predictions over ENSO climatology is characterized and opportunities for further improvement and application of regional climate model output discussed.
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