Giashuddin Miah1, Nasimul Bari2, Tofayel Ahamed1, and Uttam Saha3. (1) BSMR Agricultural University, Department of Agroforestry and Environment, Salna, Gazipur-1706, Bangladesh, (2) BSMR Agricultural University, Department of Agronomy, Salna, Gazipur-1706, Bangladesh, (3) 2169 McCarty Hall, University of Florida - Horticultural Sciences, University of Florida, Soil & Water Science Department, Gainesville, FL 32611
Bangladesh, with the lowest per capita arable land and poor resource base, is struggling hard to feed her 132 million people. By the year 2030, the population is likely to reach around 191 million. Demands for cereals, pulses, oilseeds, roots & tubers, vegetables, and fruits in 1995 were around 20.07, 0.66, 0.82, 18.70, 9.42, and 2.48 million metric tons, respectively. In 2030, demand for these crops has been estimated at around 31.67, 1.05, 1.27, 29.50, 14.86, and 3.91 million tones, respectively. To meet this elevated demand, production in 2030 has to be increased by around 75, 102, 170, 1450, 463, and 194%, respectively from 1995 level. To achieve this goal, productivity of these crops has to be increased from 1.71, 0.75, 0.85, 10.65, 6.51, and 8.29 t/ha in 1995 to 5.88, 1.48, 2.29, 166.67, 80.32, and 23.27 t/ha in 2030, respectively. Intensive land use, particularly, monocropping of rice or rice – maize cropping pattern with high input technologies i.e. fertilizers and pesticides are causing serious negative impact on soil and ecosystem health. Besides, use of agrochemicals e.g. fertilizer and pesticide has been increasing tremendously, but productivity of major crops during the same period has been found stagnant and even in declining trend due to declining soil fertility. Natural calamities like flood, drought, salinity, cyclone, etc. cause serious damage to crops, lives and properties every year. These scenarios will pose a serious threat to food security in the next century. Population control, integrated resource management, use of modern crop varieties, and improved but environmentally friendly technologies and management practices might be useful to combat the whole range of issues in the coming century.