Monday, November 5, 2007 - 10:35 AM
41-4

The Upper Mississippi River: Past, Present and a Bio-future for Agriculture.

Dennis Keeney, Retired, 3402 Eisenhower, Ames, IA 50010

Advances in technology and crop genetics, coupled with agriculture policies to enhance production of commodities for trade and low priced food, feed and fiber, have driven the corn-soybean cropping system that dominates the upper Midwest.  Historically, price support subsidies and other farm programs have been used to mitigate the economic impact of low crop prices.  This encouraged row crop production and large-scale land drainage and provided below cost of production grains for export and animal feeding operations.  Large exports of nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico through the Mississippi River and its tributaries were a predictable result.  Now agriculture is also being called on to provide biofuels.  A sharp increase in demand for corn grain for ethanol production and soybean for biodiesel production has resulted in rapidly increased corn and soybean prices.  Corn grain prices have increased nearly 100% in the past few months, and early investors in the ethanol industry are making large profits.  The area planted to corn is predicted to increase 15% in 2007 and will likely expand further if corn prices continue at present or higher levels.  Much of this expansion will come from a decline in soybean land, but some will come from land currently enrolled in the popular Conservation Reserve Program and other perennial land cover.  Will the expanded corn acreage with increased nitrogen fertilizer use result in more nitrate export to the Gulf?  What will the future look like if the biofuel industry moves to cellulosic feedstocks?  How would this greener landscape look like compared to the row crop landscape of today?  How can agronomists contribute to a sustainable green landscape that provides ecosystem services, food, a stable economy and biofuels?