Thursday, November 8, 2007 - 8:25 AM
330-2

More Frequent and Intense Hurricanes Cause Less Destruction: A Global Perspective of Hurricanes.

Steven Hamburg, PO Box 1943 135 Angell St., Brown University, Brown University, Center for Environmental Studies, Providence, RI 02912-1943

Over the past 50 years close to 100 hurricanes have impacted the Gulf Coast of the United States.  As we grabble with understanding the pattern of impacts of these storms we seldom consider that strong tropical storms (hurricanes and typhoons) affect three times more forest area in the North Pacific as compared to the North Atlantic.  In fact many areas of the Old World experience many more storms per year than do the coastal forests of the Gulf Coast.  Along the Gulf Cost coastal forests experience an average of 0.1 hurricanes per year, but in Taiwan they are impacted by 7 times that number.  Yet, more storms do not mean more impacts, it is rather the reverse.  The more frequent and intense the hurricanes the fewer the trees that get blown down and the shorter lived the impacts on stream biogeochemistry.  There appears to be a direct relationship between storm frequency and intensity and ecosystem resistance and resilience.  More intense storms means forests are less impacted and recover more quickly.  A looming question for the Gulf Coast is how increased storm intensity might impact these forests; will it increase or decrease its resistance?  Similarly will the built environment follow the pattern of the natural environment with increased resistance?  How long will this resistance take to develop?