Wednesday, November 7, 2007 - 11:05 AM
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Phosphorus Runoff Risk Evaluator Version 2.0: A Revised and Expanded Computer Based Risk Assessment Tool for Hawaii and the Pacific Islands.

Hudson Minshew and Michael Robotham. USDA-NRCS, 2207 Komo Mai Dr., Pearl City, HI 96782

USDA-NRCS policy (CPS 590) requires that phosphorus be considered as part of nutrient management planning. Part of this policy demands an evaluation of the phosphorus pollution risk. USDA-NRCS technical specialists nationwide have been tasked with the development of phosphorus pollution risk assessment tools, typically referred to as P-indices, that field staff can use to perform these assessments. Unlike most states, Hawaii did not develop a numerical index. Instead, working cooperatively with the University of Hawaii, USDA-NRCS Hawaii developed a rule-based computer assisted risk assessment system called PRRE in 2002. The recent merger of Hawaii and the former Pacific Basin Area (including Guam, American Samoa, the CNMI and the US affiliated Pacific Island Nations) into the Pacific Islands Area (PIA) has necessitated an update of PRRE to expand its use throughout the PIA. In addition to extensive expansion of the existing databases, the update has resulted in significant changes that have improved the original software, such as increased sensitivity to management inputs and cleaner visual input screens. Another primary change is a shift from a rule-based decision matrix to a set of risk assessment algorithms based on Bayesian statistical principles. These algorithms incorporate soil test P levels and estimated P release rates as well as regulatory P concentration limits for fresh water. Management recommendations are provided based on the estimated level of pollution risk. Beta-testing of the new software in multiple situations throughout the PIA has shown that it provides consistent and defensible risk assessments for a range of typical management systems and can be productively used by USDA-NRCS field staff and other natural resource professionals to identify areas where management is needed to reduce pollution risks.