Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Fort Knox Encroachment Study in Support of Military Training.

Bruce MacAllister1, James Westervelt1, Robert Lozar2, and Joseph Rank1. (1) Engineer Research and Development Center, PO Box 9005, Champaign, IL 61826-9005, (2) Pertan Group, 44 East Main St., Urbana, IL 61801

This study was conducted with a number of specific objectives.  The first of which was to define the historic trend of development surrounding Fort Knox, KY.  The second objective was to project that trend to the immediate future in order to identify where urban development is likely to occur in years to come.  Third, we wanted to identify key opportunities for land acquisition/preservation within a five-mile buffer around the installation. These objectives were designed with one goal in mind: to help effectively minimize future impacts of civilian urban development on the training and readiness mission of Fort Knox. The project used GIS map layers in the analysis of historic land use and growth in the region.  These GIS layers were then used again as input to the LEAM Land Use Change (LEAMluc) model to project urban growth around Fort Knox into the future.  Historical land use maps, current and future highway system plans, and municipal zoning information all contributed to forecasting residential and commercial development.  The historic analysis showed a growth rate of roughly 2% per decade in the region surrounding Fort Knox.  Model simulations indicate that the areas south and west of Fort Knox are those at the greatest risk for urban encroachment, with substantial urban sprawl emanating from Louisville to the north.  Suggestions for ways to deal with future civilian encroachment are discussed.